Due to the ammo weight requirements of the
Next-Generation Squad Weapons Program (also seen as NGSAW and NGSAR), I don't believe that SIG will stand a chance (at least on the AR side of the program). If they modified their belt-fed for cased-telescopic or caseless ammunition (which has seen high marks in the LSAT Program), then they'll have the Squad Automatic Weapon side. Basically, they can't meet the bulk of the program requirements without going in one of those two directions. Textron / AAI is apart of the NGSW Program with submitted tech demonstrators, which is separate from the LSAT Program. They have the most experience in "non-standard cased ammunition" technologies. They merely have to adapt their platforms (LSAT machine gun and LSAT rifle) to a 6.8mm round.
The LSAT Program has made some huge leaps and bounds, and has been highly successful in both the case-telescopic and caseless ammunition arenas. The bonuses in lightening the load for ammo bearers, cook-off prevention for more sustained strings of fire (a huge complaint in COP fights in Afghanistan for both M249s, M240s and M4s) and several platforms that work. Here's some links on what's transpired.
Textron Systems PDF for ARDEC.
Kori Phillips interview (2014 when the argument was 6.5mm vs 6.8mm).
The NDIA 2016 overview of Cased-Telescopic Ammunition-based Firearms.
If the Army scraps the weight reduction (high-end option) for the PCP Tactical alternative (low-end option, poly-case round design), then they will be able to modify existing stocks of weaponry. The goal there will be to put a 6.8mm round in a casing that can be used in current M4 while only having to switch uppers. Logistically speaking, this is the best option. However, the Army has pounded the weight drum so long and hard, we could possibly see the program canned due to political disagreements. Like all of the rest of the small arms replacement programs since the 1980s. Someone mentioned sticking 6.8mm rounds in a specific modified casing, but I forget what parent cartridge was mentioned at this time. It had nothing to do with 6.8mm Remington SPC II (as 6.8 SPC, in all of it's forms, is dead to the Army because the
USMC and USSOCOM weren't impressed in 2007 with the ballistics and SPC II will never get a shot), though. Textron may have some kind of development for an upper and CT or caseless ammo, but that remains to be seen due to the sensitive nature of the NGSW Program.
Going full Chairborne, I believe they should go with Option A (entirely new platform and ammunition types), due to how well the ammunition technology progressed since 2004 (LSAT has roots back to OICW Increment 3 - LGMA Program), with the added focus on marksmanship training. But, that's a lot of money that won't be allocated to the Armed Forces.
So, I foresee Option B being chosen and eventually being shit-canned. Why? Politics. The only benefit of the loss? The Army gets to see a faster evolution of small arms technologies for an advancement coming a decade down the road and they get current working options to field test with USSOCOM. There's a lot of covert potential in modifying the LSAT caseless ammo firearms with the rounds you need for field ops.
As for the most solid of confirmations on 6.8mm rounds being sought: look no further than the
NGSW PON and the
PDF therein. The ammo is classified as
"6.8mm General Purpose, XM1186" within. Information specific to the rounds, which I assume Lake City is providing, has been redacted. Obviously.